A Guide to Creating Great Predictions

The one question every prediction must answer

Before you post, ask yourself: “Can this outcome be verified fairly by an independent person after the prediction closes?” If the answer is no, don’t create it. Everything below is really just a way of making sure the answer is always yes.

The five ingredients of a clear prediction

• Subject — who or what the prediction is about.
• Measurable event — exactly what must happen for it to be “Yes.”
• Deadline — the precise date and time the outcome is judged.
• Source — the reliable public place the result will be confirmed.
• Timezone — essential for anything involving “today,” “tomorrow,” or a market close.

Turn a vague idea into a clear market

Here is the same intention written badly and then well:

Too vague: “Will Bitcoin go up tomorrow?” — “go up” is undefined, there is no starting price, no exchange, and “tomorrow” means different things to different people.

Clear: “Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Binance BTC/USDT at 23:59 UTC on July 15, 2026?” — the asset, exchange, price level, deadline, and timezone are all explicit, and the outcome is trivial to verify.

Words to avoid unless you define them

Vague adjectives are the most common reason a prediction becomes unsettleable. Avoid “affect,” “soon,” “safe,” “popular,” “best,” “strong,” and “increase” without a baseline. For example, replace “Will LAB price be affected today?” with a measurable version: “Will LAB/USDT close at least 5% lower than its 12:00 UTC price on Binance by 23:59 UTC on July 12, 2026?”

Choose a source people can actually check

Good sources are public and authoritative: official sports-league results, recognized price exchanges, government announcements, court records, public company announcements, and reputable news outlets. Weak sources — private messages, rumors, “people are saying,” unverifiable screenshots, or your own interpretation — make a prediction impossible to settle fairly and should never be used.

Close before the outcome is known

A prediction must close before its result is available. For sports, close before kick-off; for a price, close before the measurement time; for an announcement, close before official results are expected. Leaving a market open after the outcome is known — or creating one about something that has already happened — is unfair and will be voided.

Write it so it settles itself

The simplest test of a good prediction: could a moderator settle it correctly using only the words you wrote, with no help from you? A reliable template is: “Will [specific event] happen by [date and time, timezone], according to [verification source]?”

A quick pre-post checklist

• The event has not already happened, and the outcome is still unknown.
• The close time is before the result is available.
• The result can be verified from a clear public source.
• The wording is neutral and the winning condition is measurable.
• The options are mutually exclusive and the timezone is explicit.
• You could explain how to settle it using only the written text.

For the full ruleset, including how predictions are settled and when they may be voided, read the Prediction Standards & Participation Guide. New to the platform? Start with How Fan Club Z Works.